Winter Storm Watch for Saturday Night through Sunday

Another Winter Storm to come awfully close to STC area… 6-12″? Or will deflector shield work again?

Another Friday/Saturday — another storm. Wouldn’t you believe that this is the 4th in 5 Friday/Saturday combos that have seen a significant snowfall in parts of southern Minnesota? Well, another one is taking shape right now, and will once again come terribly close to the STC area.

This is the latest run by the NAM model, and it has throughout the day shifted the heaviest bands of snow toward the north metro and STC area. As you can see, the 0Z run has the heaviest of snow from STC eastward.

This is the latest run from the GFS, showing the snow more in line with current Winter Storm Watches, but still pushing 8″ into the STC area.

It’ll be interesting to see where the deformation zone sets up — the axis of heaviest snow. It’s been pretty much just to our east or west throughout the winter so far… could it set up right over STC this time? We shall see… 50 miles could be the difference between 4″ and near a foot…

While it is still early out, there is the possibility we could see 6-12″ inches in the STC area, while portions of the Twin Cities along with areas south and east of there could see a foot or more. I am not completely buying into the NAM model just yet — would like to see another run or two of about the same before I did. Since the GFS comes somewhat in line with it and the watches, even though with less snow, makes me more confident that we could at least be on the edge of the heavier snow. Its looking like we could see greater snow amounts than what we have been so far this winter (from one storm) by the end of the day Saturday. If nothing else, I believe that the forecast from Paul Douglas will be true — 1-15″!

Right now this is the moisture output. The NAM model is forecasting over an inch of moisture within the system. If that were to verify, and at an expected 15:1 snow to water ratio, some areas could see close to 15″ of snow (which falls closely in line with where the model has the heaviest snowfall at the moment). I’m not sure that there will be an inch of moisture in this system, but it’s something to watch for.

Watches as of 9 PM Thursday

These is the current watches out for the system. A Winter Storm Watch covers much of southern and eastern MN, including the Twin Cities and Sherburne County, for the possibility of over 6″ of snow. Meanwhile, there is a Flood Warning in the Ft. Ripley area due to an ice jam.

Besides the snow, we will have to watch for blizzard-like conditions. Winds will be out of the northwest 15-25 mph, gusts to 30, creating white-out driving conditions. Saturday will not be a day to travel if possible! This will be snow that is easy to shovel off the driveway, but a pain in the neck to travel on the streets/highways with.

It’ll be interesting to watch the path of this storm over the next few days, especially to see if the STC area can miss out on another winter storm. Let’s see if the deflector shield continues to work!

Winter Storm Watch from Monday Evening thru Tuesday Morning

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
302 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

…SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM LATE MONDAY TO LATE TUESDAY…

.SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT…AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY FROM MORRIS…TO SAUK CENTRE AND LITTLE
FALLS…AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR FROM ALEXANDRIA TO ST
CLOUD. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL…STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY…WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

THIS IS STILL A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WINTER WEATHER MESSAGES FOR THE
LATER UPDATES ON THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-KANDIYOHI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LONG PRAIRIE…LITTLE FALLS…
PRINCETON…MORA…ST. CLOUD…FOLEY…WILLMAR
302 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING…SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT…AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

* OTHER IMPACTS…STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LEADING
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Winter Storm Watch South and East; 2-5″ Possible In STC

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for places south and east of St. Cloud area, including Sherburne County and the Twin Cities for Saturday ahead of a strengthening system coming out of the south. This system will have the potential of leaving 6″ of slushy, wet snow in some locations. A few questions remain, such as where the rain/snow line will set up (current thought is over or just south of the Twin Cities) and how much of this snow will melt on contact due to warm soil conditions.

This is the latest NAM model. While I think it is overdoing the total snowfall, I do believe it is a good indicator of where the heaviest snow will likely fall.

Right now, the heaviest bands of snow look like they will set up about 30 miles east of St. Cloud, say between Monticello and Maple Grove, where 6″+ of snow may be possible. We may end up being on the fringes of the snow, and end up with 2-5″ of slushy stuff. There is even the possibility that we may end up with less depending on the track of the low, and how long the moisture is snow vs. rain/snow mix. Over the Twin Cities, especially the west metro, 6-8″ cannot be out of the question, again fluctuating based on any mixing of the precipitation. As you reach the eastern suburbs, I would expect the totals to taper off once again, as they may be on the mainly rain side of this system, mainly changing to snow late Saturday.

I like this analysis by the NWS, but I think that the 8″+ area might be a little close to the St. Cloud area.

The picture is becoming a little clearer. It definitely looks like the heavy snow area should be just to our east by 30 or so miles, and while we could end up with 3″, they could end up with twice or three-times as much. Be careful driving toward the Cities over the next couple of days, as things will deteriorate and quickly. Will update as needed.

Here are some useful tips from Paul Douglas:

1). Filling up your vehicle with gas. Not expecting any gasoline shortages, but the added weight of a full tank of gas can help with traction.

2). If you have rear-wheel drive consider throwing a few bags of salt/sand in the trunk. This will put more weight over the rear tires and help you get around tomorrow.

3). Stock up on Antifreeze and blue juice for your windshield.

4). If you haven’t already done so – consider staking the driveway (so the guy with the plow doesn’t chew up your lawn).

5). If you have the option: travel this evening (just a cold rain) or wait until Sunday afternoon/evening. I expect the interstates to be wet/slushy tomorrow – you WILL be able to get around, but it’s going to be slow, and we all know it takes one or two storms before Minnesotans regain their confidence in wintry weather.

The Upcoming Christmas Snowpocalypse?

Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday Evening through Friday

First, this is not meant to scare you or anything, just to let you know about the possibilities of an large upcoming storm that could wreck havoc over the Christmas period for travel.

Within the past day or so, the computer models have started coming together and placing a possible snowstorm over southern Minnesota and the St. Cloud area from Wednesday Evening through Christmas. The models have the low of the storm passing somewhere between Chicago and southeast Minnesota, and bring a sizable amount of snow to the area. Right now the models are outputting as much as 20″ over the Twin Cities (12z GFS Cobb, picture). The best estimate, though, is a good 6-12″ of snow with even more possible.

A few factors are in favor for a large snow total. First, a favorable track has some of the heaviest snow over the area. Already, they are warning in the Sioux City area of 10-20″ of snow from the storm. It would be that type of snow that lifts northward into our area. Also, the Gulf of Mexico will be open for moisture, allowing a wet snow to accumulate with a) snow-to-liquid ratios between 10-15:1, and b) liquid amounts possibly over 1″.

I still have some worries about the storm though. First, the track is still very uncertain. We are still a number of days away from the storm, and the track could change by then. Also, the first surge of snow on Wednesday Night will have a warm factor to it, which could mean there is a mixture of sleet. It looks like, though, that that portion may only make it to the Rochester area, so that we will still see an entire snow event.

Right now, the system will come in three parts. First will be Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Next part will be later Thursday through Christmas Morning, and the third while the storm is departing late Friday into Saturday Morning. Also, especially from Thursday onward, winds will pick up from the north at 20-30 mph, creating some blowing and drifting.

Again, the best estimate could only be up to a foot of snow, but it will be redefined as we get closer to the storm date. Stay tuned as this storm will likely wreck havoc on many travel plans starting Wednesday.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009

…FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT…

…WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA…AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…

.A FAST MOVING…BUT POTENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA…WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
IOWA BORDER.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE UPPER
MIDWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE PROLONGED PERIOD FOR
WHICH THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED…THERE WILL BE MAJOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVELERS…ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES AND THE EXACT
STORM TRACK IS STILL UNCLEAR…THE LARGE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM…AND EXPECTED HIGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE CONTENT…WILL
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS SO COMPLEX THAT
WILL BE THREE BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT. THE FIRST IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE HAS ABUNDANT WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT…SO THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE IOWA BORDER. THE NEXT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH. THE
LAST WAVE WILL LIKELY BE THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WHICH WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES…SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER
REFINED…BUT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD EXCEED A FOOT OVER PARTS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM…HOLIDAY
ROAD AND AIR TRAVEL WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.

MNZ041>045-047>063-065>070-076>078-WIZ014>016-023>028-220600-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0008.091224T0000Z-091226T0000Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-RENVILLE-
MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-POLK-
BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ALEXANDRIA…LONG PRAIRIE…
LITTLE FALLS…PRINCETON…MORA…MORRIS…GLENWOOD…ST. CLOUD…
FOLEY…ELK RIVER…CAMBRIDGE…CENTER CITY…MADISON…BENSON…
MONTEVIDEO…WILLMAR…LITCHFIELD…MONTICELLO…MINNEAPOLIS…
BLAINE…ST. PAUL…STILLWATER…OLIVIA…HUTCHINSON…GAYLORD…
CHASKA…SHAKOPEE…BURNSVILLE…LE SUEUR…FARIBAULT…
RED WING…AMERY…BALSAM LAKE…RICE LAKE…BARRON…LADYSMITH…
HUDSON…NEW RICHMOND…RIVER FALLS…PRESCOTT…MENOMONIE…
BOYCEVILLE…DURAND…PEPIN…CHIPPEWA FALLS…BLOOMER…
EAU CLAIRE…ALTOONA
351 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING…SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS…SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WATCH AREA…WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE STORM
INTENSIFIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

* SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AS WIND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY…BECOMING
MORE NORTHEAST…THEN NORTH ON FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

JLT/JPR