Little Richard and the First Major Snowstorm

Today’s Ham Weather blog…

Little Richard and the First Major Snowstorm

Happy Sunday to everyone out there — got a number of topics to approach today, so lets get started!

First Major Winter Storm

We are seeing our first major winter storm currently taking shape and getting ready to hit parts of the Sierra Nevada and the Rockies over the next couple of days. A deepening low pressure center will be moving into British Columbia and the NW United States, bringing heavy rainfall to areas of lower elevation and heavy snows to the higher elevations. Locations over 7,500 feet could see a foot or two of snow in areas due to this system, along with howling winds out of the southwest at 20-40 mph sustained, gusting up to 70.

Many locations in the mountains are under Winter Storm Warnings or Winter Weather Advisories due to how much snow could fall. But lower elevations could again see some rain due to the fact that the air at the ground will be warmer than the air aloft — so we might also have to watch for the possibility of icy patches over the next few days. This system is expected to push off towards the Upper Midwest by midweek and strengthen even more, bringing wind and much colder air to these areas — and the possibility of the first snow across many of the northern states? In fact they are already warning of possible power outages in northern Wisconsin for the middle of the week due to high winds. I guess this is just the sign that winter is knocking on the door step — and that we could have a long winter ahead in parts of the nation. Guess I might as well break out the Straight No Chaser Christmas music on the iPod…

Meanwhile, this snow can only help some ski resorts out in those mountains. One such resort is the Loveland Ski Area in Georgetown, Colorado, who has been making snow the past few weeks and finally has enough on the trails to open to the public today. This will mark the second year in a row that Loveland will be the first ski resort to open in Colorado — the first in the nation to open honors went to Sunday River, Maine, who opened yesterday.

Little Richard

We are tracking Richard, which is a small storm in comparison to typical tropical systems. As of this morning it had winds of 70 mph and was starting to show signs that an eye may be forming. It is still possible that this system could become a minimal hurricane before making landfall in Belize later tonight and starting its weakening trend as it moves across the Yucatan. The storm track over the past few days has continue to move it more to the west, but it is still expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. But if the Yucatan does not destroy the system, some very dry air in the Gulf of Mexico will. The system doesn’t look like it will have that great of impact on the United States, maybe bringing in some rain to southern Texas by the end of the week.

Severe Potential

Another day of possible severe weather — today it stretches from Illinois down to Louisiana and Texas. Large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are the threats today.

And that’s your weather roundup for today. Hope you have a great Sunday — and check back in throughout the week for more on the first major wintery storm for many areas of the northern United States.

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation
Twitter @weathrlver

Frosty Start and Lake Effect Snow

HamWeather Blog…

Frosty Start across the Midwest

Good Sunday Morning to you all! It was a frost start over a good chunk of the upper Midwest, ranging from northern Minnesota all the way into Missouri, with temperatures dipping into the upper teens in some places! The coolest temperature I have seen so far this morning was from Embarrass, MN, where it got down to 20 as of last report an hour before sunrise. Mainly over portions of northern Minnesota and into Wisconsin the growing season is likely over due to this frost and freeze that occurred this morning — but that also means that some of those pesky box elder bugs and wasps should be fading away. Hard to believe it will be winter soon over a portion of the nation! We are expecting a frost tonight to extend deep into the south, where Frost Advisories are already in effect as of this morning for portions of Arkansas and Tennessee for later tonight. Places that far south should be covering up their plants or bringing them inside to prevent them from dying if you want them to survive!

First Lake Effect of the Season

Speaking of winter, believe it or not we saw the first lake effect snow flurries of the season Saturday on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan at Gwinn Sawyer Airport. Nothing accumulated that we can find here at WeatherNation, but still another sign of winter… You can read more about this at the CIMSS Satellite Blog.

Atlantic Staying Calm

Hard to believe, but the Atlantic is staying calm at the moment. Two areas of disturbed weather, but neither look too impressive at the moment for development. Even if we do see some slow development out of the systems, neither show an immediate threat to the United States, as the global models show both curving back out to sea before reaching the US.

Doppler On Wheels

The Doppler on Wheels is a mobile Doppler system developed by Dr. Joshua Wurman that allows scientists to get up close and personal with severe weather events and rapidly scan these storms for research. During the year these vehicles are used for many different purposes — during the spring for severe storm events in the southern US, summer for hurricane landfalls (along with repairs) and during the college school year for student research. One of these vehicles has been deployed to St. Cloud State University on the first of several events for these vehicles this college school year where they will be studying Autumn Storms over the next 2-3 weeks. Unfortunately for the next week there is nothing promising in the forecast for a lot of the upper Midwest! Later this year the vehicles will be making trips to Washington DC, Vermont, Michigan and North Dakota before taking a trip across the Atlantic to England and France early next spring.

That’s it for this Sunday — hope you enjoy it!

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation

Hurricane Igor Slamming Bermuda

This morning’s HamWeather blog…

Hurricane Igor Slamming Bermuda

Good Sunday to you all! It’s the second week of NFL games, but we have some more serious weather to talk about first before we get to the football forecast.

Tropics

Here is your tropical update!

Igor Slamming Bermuda

Big story today is Hurricane Igor hitting the small island of Bermuda, bringing with him winds of 85 mph as of this morning. Earlier this morning winds near hurricane force (74 mph+) were already being felt on the island, and it is expected that they will receive some hurricane force winds later in the day as the center of Igor likely will pull just west of the island. Either way, strong tropical storm force winds can be expected throughout the night, and into the day on Monday. Bermuda’s Weather Service is calling for 25-45 waves to impact the island over the next day along with Category 1 strength winds, along with a lot of rain. The good news (if there is any good news from a system like this) is that Bermuda’s building are some of the best constructed in the entire world, with most being built from concrete (even the roofs!) and are mainly located away from the coast in higher elevation areas, therefore damage should be minimized from what we could see from a strong storm like this. Even with that said, we do expect damages in the millions of dollars by the time all is said and done.

Also, those along the east coast will continue to see strong rip currents through at least Monday, so it would be advisable to stay out of the ocean if possible over the next few days!

Julia

Julia is being torn apart due to her close proximity to Igor, and should disappear from the map in the next two days.

94L

We’re watching a wave that came off the African coast over the past couple days that the Hurricane Center has at a 70% of forming by Tuesday. This storm should become our “L” name: Lisa. The weather models are for the most part in agreement on turning this storm back northwestward out to sea, something like what Julia did, and should not be a big threat to land.

Another Wave

We have another wave coming off the African coast which we will have to watch for development over the next few days. If it were to develop we would be our “M” name of Matthew. Might have to keep an eye on this one for westward progression as it is coming off Africa a little more south than the recent ones that have curved off to sea.

Storm Origins

For the most part (except Karl) we have seen most of our storms form off the coast of Africa, and as we look at the trends for the month of September they seem to be following the norm. The good news out of looking at the norms for storms off Africa is that they have been following the path that curves them off instead of following the southern path which brings them toward the Caribbean and then could become a threat to the United States. Lets hope it stays this way!

Texas Waterlogged

Texas has seen a lot of moisture from numerous tropical systems this year. Parts of southern Texas have seen over a foot of moisture above the normal for this time of year, and the rivers are under a lot of stress, as they watch for possible flooding. More rain is not needed, but some of the remnants of Karl are being wrapped up into southern Texas over the next few days. We’ll keep an eye on Texas as the tropical season is not over yet, by far.

National Outlook

Its Sunday, so we have numerous football and baseball games occurring. If you are heading out to the game, participating in any tailgating, or anything else outdoors, things should be okay for a good chunk of the nation. We have all the moisture over southern Texas that may interrupt your plans, otherwise we also have a stationary front over the mid portion of the country and could spark some showers and storms from the Dakotas to the Ohio River Valley. We are also watching a new system enter the northwest, bringing rain to Washington State and Oregon. The good news is that all of these storms are not expected to be severe, but may produce some heavier rains.

Hope you have a great Sunday — and that your favorite team wins!

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation

Remembering Katrina and Watching The Tropics

Today’s Ham Weather blog…

Remembering Katrina and Watching The Tropics

Good Sunday to everyone logging on out there.

Katrina: 5 Years Later

Five years ago today a strong Hurricane Katrina made landfall around New Orleans. The above image is from NASA right about the time of landfall. Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall with winds of 125 mph, down from the furious 175 mph-Category 5 hurricane she was just the day before. By the time the storm moved out, Katrina killed more than 1,800 human lives and caused $125 billion in damages. Life has slowly been coming back to New Orleans since the storm, but this years oil spill did not help the regrowth. In fact, some officials have said that it could take the New Orleans area another 5 years to recover since the oil spill occurred. Life will never be the same, though, along the coast. The damage was devastating and eye opening — I remember watching the national TV crews camped out in New Orleans, all of the meteorologists being batted around in the wind before satellite feeds went down, and days and days of aftermath being aired on cable news, especially the conditions that occurred in the Superdome. Revisions to the levee systems are supposed to be completed within the next year or so that should help the city if another storm had New Orleans in the bulls eye. Hopefully we have nothing happen like what we had in 2005, all the way from Katrina to Wilma and a total of 28 storms by the end of the year.

Image above: Katrina-Flooded I-10/I-610/West End Blvd interchange in northwest New Orleans

Tropical Troubles

As we remember Katrina today, we must look at what is out in the tropics right now, as we have a couple storms that do bear monitoring.

Danielle

First, we start with Danielle, which should not be in our hair much longer. She has weakened this morning to a Category 1 hurricane, and is expected to start to fizzle out over the next couple days. The storm veered off to the east just in time and missed Bermuda, but higher wave action is expected in Bermuda and along the east coast of the United States over the next few days from Danielle.

Earl

As we put Danielle in the rear view mirror, we look at Earl, who was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane this morning. Earl is currently heading toward the northern Leeward Islands and may also affect Puerto Rico over the next few days (Hurricane Watches and Warnings are currently in place for these areas) before it curves off. Right now all the models have this storm scraping the eastern coastline, but hopefully staying off shore, by the second half of the week. They also having this become a Category 4 storm by the middle of the week. We can hope that since the storm is growing, the storm gets grabbed by the upper level winds and directed out to sea. I would expect, though, some heavier rains and some gusty winds along the east coast as we head toward the end of the week. Below is the ECMWF (European) model that shows Earl near Cape Cod by Thursday Night.

Fiona?

Besides Danielle and Earl, we are watching a disturbance east of Earl that has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical system within the next couple days. I would not be surprised if this becomes a Tropical Depression later today. At least one of the long range models, the European (ECMWF), has this storm eventually aiming towards Florida around Labor Day. This model does have some trouble at times as we look very far out, but is more accurate than some. Over the next few days is a good opportunity to make sure you are prepared for a tropical system if one were to aim your way, whether you are along the Atlantic coast or the Gulf coast. It only takes one storm to create billions in dollars of damage, as was evident with Katrina. We will continue to watch the tropics for you and bring you updates throughout the next coming days on how these storms may affect you, especially was we approach Labor Day weekend. Below is a look at the ECMWF model with possible landfall in Florida.

Hope you have a great day out there, and enjoy the nice weather that should be dominant across much of the nation for much of today!

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation

Tropical Depression 6 Forms

Today’s Ham Weather blog.

Tropical Depression 6 Forms

Good Sunday morning everyone. Let’s tackle today’s weather headlines!

Tropical Depression 6

Our next tropical system formed far out in the Atlantic yesterday evening, and as of posting it was still classified Tropical Depression 6. It is, though, expected to become Tropical Storm Danielle later today and in the next few days, a Hurricane. Current models have the storm posing no threat to land, though, starting to curve it off to the north and east by the end of the week — and at the moment should avoid even Bermuda. We are watching another wave coming off the coast of Africa within the next few days — and that has the possibility to be the next system to watch.

June 17 Outbreak

The National Weather Service offices in and around Minnesota are finally releasing the numbers from the tornado outbreak that occurred across the state on June 17. It currently looks like there were 45 tornadoes, mainly in northwest and south central parts of the state. Some surveying is still being done, so it is possible this number could fluxuate still. Either way, this would be a record for the number of tornadoes for one day in the state of Minnesota, easily smashing the record of 27 set on June 16, 1992. I also went and looked at the numbers from April 24, when there was the outbreak in Mississippi, including the Yazoo City tornado. If my numbers are correct, there were only 40 tornadoes on that day. That would (likely) make this date the biggest tornado outbreak day of the year so far. This really does show that Minnesota has had more tornado reports than any other state this year — something quite freaky for the northland! You can view more of the data from June 17 here.

Dull Period for Severe Storms

Seems like we are entering a pretty dull period for severe storms at the moment. The only big threat for severe weather will be down near the Gulf Coast today, and over the next few days there isn’t any big areas that the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting for severe storms. Enjoy the little break from severe weather!

49ers vs. Vikings

Sunday Night Football has the San Francisco 49ers at home in Candlestick Park against the Minnesota Vikings — and the skies are looking clear for it! Temperatures should be around 60 throughout the entire game. The only problem is some gustier winds from the NW at 10-15 that might have the potential to wreck a little havoc with those kicks.

Hope you have a great Sunday!

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation

Quiet Weather Until Tomorrow… Leftovers of Tropical Depression 5 Move Ashore (Again)

You may have noticed that this blog has gone quiet the past few days. Well, since the weather is nice I decided to take a break from everything and do as former Minnesota Vikings coach Mike Tice says: “Enjoy the season!” Things could heat back up tomorrow severe weather wise, so beware! Today’s Ham Weather blog is below:

Leftovers of Tropical Depression 5 Move Ashore (Again)

Happy Tuesday to you all. We are watching the remnants of TD 5 move ashore today, the severe threat returning to the upper Midwest, and the heat continues to retreat.

Tropics

This is what is left of the remnants of Tropical Depression 5. It moved ashore in Louisiana earlier today, therefore killing any chances of it reforming into a tropical system. It is expected to bring heavy rains once again to areas that received it last week from this same system. This time, however, it looks like it will get a kick out into the Atlantic due to merging with a frontal system in the next few days, therefore this system will finally be out of our hair.

We are also watching a couple of tropical waves come off of Africa which will bear monitoring for possible development. It is towards these waves off Africa that we start to look for development as we get into late August and September. Would not be surprised if we see a storm start forming in this area over the next week or so.

As long as we are talking tropics, we are looking back at a storm that made its landfall 41 years ago today. Back in 1969, Hurricane Camille made landfall in Louisiana. It is only only three hurricanes to make landfall in the United States as a Category 5 hurricane. Camille caused more than $1.4 billion in damage from the Gulf Coast to the Appalachians, and made landfall with gusts of 190+ mph in Bay St. Louis.

Severe Chances

Coming back to present day, we do have a slight risk of severe storms over parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota today along a cold front that will slowly make its way through the upper Midwest over the next few days. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threat — ingredients for tornadoes do not appear abundant today.

This is the severe weather threat on Wednesday, mainly over Minnesota. The Twin Cities National Weather Service office is already stating that there could be a strong tornado or two across the Slight Risk area on Wednesday, in addition to large hail and damaging winds. The severe risk area will stay in approximately the same areas Thursday before it finally pushes southward for Friday.

Heat in Retreat

If you have been watching the Heat Related Advisories map over the past few days, it almost looks like an army retreating to the south. Today the only Heat Advisories appear to be in parts of Texas as much of the nation gets some relief from the heat — at least for the next few days. Some of this is due to that cold front that has move through a chunk of the country the past few days. It looks like clouds and rain are keeping higher temperatures at bay for a chunk of the south.

You are now caught up with today’s main weather! Have a great Tuesday!

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation

Friday the 13th Lightning and Tropical Depression 5 Making a Return?

Today’s Ham Weather Blog, also viewable here.

Friday the 13th Lightning and Tropical Depression 5 Making a Return?

Good Sunday to everyone. The big news today appears to be the heat retreating and whats left of TD 5 making a return to the Gulf.

Bad Luck on Friday the Thirteenth

First, lets start with one of those weird stories. A boy over in Lowestoft, Suffolk, over in the United Kingdom, was hit by lightning on Friday the 13th. What makes this interesting is that the boy, who is 13 years old, was hit at 13:13. All thirteens on Friday the 13th. You can read more on the story from the U.K. Mirror here.

Return of TD 5?

What used to be Tropical Depression 5 is slowly making its way make to the Gulf of Mexico today, and is already being monitored for possible redevelopment. The National Hurricane Center has placed the remnants of the storm at a 20% chance of development within the next 48 hours. If it does reform, it would likely be designated as Tropical Depression 6 instead of being renamed TD 5. Most models have the storm taking aim once again at Louisiana after it reenters the Gulf, which you can see a graphic of below. What we do know is that a lot of rainfall is likely to continue to fall across the Gulf Coast over the next few days from this system.

Meanwhile, we are also watching a wave towards Africa that the models want to from into a system heading towards the Caribbean in a week or so. Nothing designated yet, but something to monitor.

Thermostat Cooling Down

The heat is heading back south, as you can see from our Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Warning map today. A cold front has been pushing south, which has cooled parts of the upper Midwest. Parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota will only be in the 70s for highs today, and lows near the Canadian border may sink to the 40s. Heat though remains in the south, where temps in the 90s and even 100s are likely. Enjoy the cooler weather if you have it!

Broncos vs. Bengals

Sunday Night Football forecast! Tonight the Denver Broncos are at the Cincinnati Bengals, and we might see some storms right around gametime. They should be quick, though, as that same cold front bring relief to the upper Midwest moves through, and we should have clearing skies by the end. Temps to start will be around 90, but cool down around 80 by the end of the game.

Make it a great Sunday out there!

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation

Continued Heat and The Next Tropical System?

This mornings Ham Weather blog…

Continued Heat and The Next Tropical System?

Hope you are having a wonderful Tuesday — and staying cool out there too!

Heat Grips the Country

Another day bring more heat across a good section of the country. While our Heat Advisories (orange) and Excessive Heat Warnings (pink) have been pushed back a little southward at least for today, the heat is now expanding itself back eastward back into eastern Kentucky and into Ohio.

Highs could top 100 in parts of the Midwest and south today with heat indices reaching 110-115 in some places. The heat index is a measure of how it actually feels outside, combining the actual temperature and the dew point temperature. Most places in the advisories have dew points in the 70s, indicating it is very moist and only adds to the stickiness outside. Take it safe outside the next few days across a good chunk of the country. Remember to limit outdoor activities, wear light colored clothing, stay hydrated with water, and check on the elderly and pets. It doesn’t help that many of these areas have or will be starting school in the next week or two — hard to think of school when it’s this hot outside!

A Wet Year in Des Moines

It’s been a wet year in portions of the upper Midwest — so wet that Des Moines, Iowa, has had it’s wettest year through August 9th then ever before. Through August 9th, Des Moines has picked up 39.03″ of rain — about 3″ above the second wettest year through the 9th set back in 2008.

Meanwhile, more rain fell there earlier this morning. Already 1.61″ has fallen today, bringing the yearly total to 40.64″, making it the 18th wettest year on record with almost five months left to go in the year. Could they break the record this year? Only time will tell. Here’s a link to a video of the swollen Des Moines River, and below are the top five wettest years on record for Des Moines.

1. 1881 56.81″
2. 1993 55.88″
3. 2008 49.42″
4. 1882 47.60″
5. 1973 45.18″
18. 2010 40.64″

Tropical System in the Gulf? Could it be Danielle?

We are watching a system in the Gulf of Mexico currently near the coast of Florida that is trying to organize. The storm is at a 60% chance of developing according to the National Hurricane Center. The models have the system heading towards the Louisiana coastline by the end of the week, either as a Tropical Storm or as a weak Hurricane. If is was to become a Tropical Storm, it would be named Danielle.

Today’s Severe Threat

It looks like the upper Midwest is once again under the gun for the possibility of some severe storm later this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are likely across the risk area. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota — in the same areas that were impacted last Saturday by severe storms.

EF-4

Lets go back to that impressive tornado caught on video by Andy Gabrielson back on Saturday in Wilkin County. National Weather Service survey teams went and were able to determine that the tornado was a low-end EF-4, with peak winds around 175 mph. The tornado was so strong that it threw a pick-up truck a half a mile, and the engine block of that truck about two-thirds of a mile! You can view the survey report here. To view the video of the tornado, click back to Sunday’s post!

There’s your weather information for today! Have a great day out there — and again, keep cool!

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation

Amazing Tornado Video, Excessive Heat Continues, Reasoning with the Tropics, and Meteors later this week

Here is my blog from the Ham Weather Biosphere Blog this morning. Lots of good information inside. Enjoy — and I really want to thank the WeatherNation mets for allowing me (and trusting me) to write these every so often!

Amazing Tornado Video, Excessive Heat Continues, Reasoning with the Tropics, and Meteors later this week

Good Sunday to you all. The weekend is almost done, probably with not everything completed that you thought you would get done. But you always have to save something for that rainy day (or next weekend), right? Take some time out of your busy schedule and read the numerous goodies we put together for you today, ranging from a very impressive tornado to today’s severe weather threat, the excessive heat gripping the Heartland, today’s Hall of Fame football game forecast, reasoning with our tropical systems, and a meteor shower later this week.

Photo/Video Of The Day: Tornado!

This is certainly the images of the day being passed around. This was a very photogenic tornado Saturday evening up in Wilkin County, MN, caught by Andy Gabrielson. Andy is a chaser associated with Severe Studios and was in the right place last night to catch this tornado from start to finish. This tornado did destroy at least one farm house, which Andy noticed and got the call out for help. Luckily no one was in the home at the time that the tornado hit — apparently the couple was at a neighbors house at the time. Here at WeatherNation we actually have this video on a loop and can’t get enough of the footage. Andy has his own website and has captured at least 60 tornadoes so far this year! You can view the video of this tornado capture on Youtube from start to finish, including the house being destroyed, by clicking here. Amazing footage, and I suggest if you have a couple minutes to check it out and hope you never get this close to one yourself! This was one of at least three tornadoes in the North Dakota/Minnesota/Wisconsin region on Saturday, with a couple others touching town on the east coast in Florida right by the ocean causing a little damage to restaurants and other locals.

Meanwhile, random fact: 70% of the U.S. is not covered by network radar that can “see” a tornado. Surprising when we rely so heavily on radar to see possible areas within a storm that could be rotating and maybe putting down a tornado.

Severe Weather Outlook

This is today’s severe weather outlook. You can see a slight risk of severe storms over a chunk of the upper Midwest, once again clipping Minnesota and down into Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats today, but you can’t rule out a couple tornadoes — the Storm Prediction Center as of this morning has the best area for tornadoes today in eastern Nebraska towards the Sioux City, Iowa, and Sioux Falls, South Dakota regions. Looking ahead we will watch another system move into the upper Midwest on Monday and Tuesday, bringing much of the same areas that were under the gun this weekend for severe storms another shot of storms and possibly severe weather.

Excessive Heat

Take a step outside over a good chunk of the nation over the next few days and you will notice that it is very hot and sticky! Many areas, especially in the Midwest, are under either Heat Advisories (Orange) or Excessive Heat Warnings (Pink) through the middle of the week due to temps in the 90s and 100s and dew points in the upper 60s and into the 70s. Combine these and it will feel like it is between 100-115 in many locations from Minnesota southward through Texas and Louisiana. This will move a little eastward as we move toward the middle of the week, and those in Kentucky and Tennessee will be under the heat again. Here are some heat tips:

• Heat can take a toll on the body, so make sure you’re staying indoors if possible with air conditioning. Fans will not cut it as at times they can make it feel worse.
• Drink plenty of water and avoid alcohol or sugary beverages which tend to dehydrate you.
• Wear light-weight, light-colored and loose-fitting clothing.
• Keep an eye on youth, elderly, and your pets too. These three groups tend to be the most prone to the effects of hot weather.

Some cities included in the Excessive Heat Warning include St. Louis, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Sioux City, and Omaha for the next few days. Stay safe and cool out there!

Hall of Fame Football Game Forecast

Yesterday seven players were inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame including Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith, and John Randle. As part of the weekend ceremonies there is an annual Hall of Fame game held on Fawcett Stadium in Canton, Ohio. This years game features the Cincinnati Bengals verses the Dallas Cowboys at 8 PM Eastern Time and the forecast is looking very nice. We will look for mainly clear skies at kick off with a temperature around 80 and temps dipping to near 70 by the time the game is over, still with clear skies. No storms look to interrupt the game — you might want some bug spray though if you are heading out for the first game of the NFL Preseason.

Reasoning with the Tropics

Whenever I talk about the tropics, I can’t help but think of the music of Jimmy Buffett. While he had the hits of “Margaritaville” and “Cheeseburger in Paradise” (kind of making me hungry right now!) to name a few, he also had another song entitled “Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season” — a song about a person watching the “squalls out on the gulf stream” moving in towards the beach and the A1A in Florida, and eventually watching the whitecaps and keeping an eye out for waterspouts. It’s a song that always comes to my head when talking about the tropics ever since I found it a few years back, and is quite telling of how everyone, from those living along or near the tropics and even the meteorologists who have to forecast the storms, have to reason with these type of systems — sometimes quite unpredictable.

While an active season is still expected, it is sometimes useful to look at active years in the past for any comparison that can be made — which typically isn’t much. But, we do know that the most active year for tropical weather, 2005, had 9 named storms by August 8th, meanwhile the second active year, 1933, had 5 storms by this date. Not sure much can be gleaned from this, but definitely interesting to look at the past. Again, quite unpredictable and a lot to try and reason with!

Right now out in the tropics as of posting time, in the Atlantic we have a dying Colin and a couple areas to watch, and in the Pacific we have Estelle.

– Atlantic

• Colin:
  
  I’ve come to call Colin the zombie storm; the storm that came back from the dead to continue to be a not-so-impressive storm. Once it regained tropical storm status, wind shear and some drier air quickly started tearing the storm apart once again — the tropics form of killing zombie/any other storm. The storm greatly slowed down its progression yesterday and this morning was downgraded to a Tropical Depression. It is expected to continue to impact Bermuda over the next day or so before finally getting a swift kick in the rear to the north. It is possible this will be a remnant storm once again later tonight or Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda, just in case Colin tries to restrengthen, which is not anticipated. The good news is that Bermuda is in the middle of a drought and needs the rain — though not quite as much as Colin wants to try and give them at once.
• Invest 93L:
  
  We call systems of interest that don’t have tropical status yet “invest” storms. This designation allows for more focus to be placed on these systems, for better information to be gathered, and signifies an area that the National Hurricane Center is watching for development. We are watching this system in the middle of the Atlantic for that possible development — the National Hurricane Center has a 60% chance of this wave forming into a Tropical Depression within the next 48 hours. Luckily, it looks like this system, whether it forms or not, will quickly curve back off into the Atlantic, posing no threat to the US or Bermuda, and possibly tracking west of the Azores.



• Invest 94L
  
  We are also tracking a new system trying to form off the Florida coast that may try to spin up into something quickly over the next few days. It is so new that the NHC isn’t yet qiving it a percentage of formation before this was posted! This will eventually head into the Gulf coast later this week more than likely and bring a lot of rain to the southeastern portion of the United States.

– Pacific

• Estelle:
  
  We have Tropical Storm Estelle in mainly open water right now in the Pacific. This storm is slowly weakening after reaching top winds of 65 mph yesterday. This storm is expected to head west over the next day or so before south and then back to the east by Tuesday or Wednesday — still posing no threat to land, and likely a Tropical Depression by that time.

Perseid Meteor Shower

To end the post, we have a major meteor shower coming up this Wednesday and Thursday Nights. The Perseid Meteor Shower will peak during this time frame, with up to around 50 meteors per hour visible. The best time to few is in the few hours before dawn once the moon sets looking towards the constellation Perseus. This is one of the most consistent performers and could be the best meteor shower for the year, so if skies are clear I invite you to head out and watch the skies — and here are some tips from NASA on how to view meteor showers. I’m sure the great team here will touch upon the forecast for the Perseids as we get closer to the big show.

And that’s what I got for you! While the weekend may be coming to an end, just remember what Jimmy Buffett sings: “Come Monday, it’ll be all right.” If nothing else, think of that Margaritaville state of mind and remember that the next weekend is only a few days away! Have a great day and a great start to the work week!

D.J. Kayser from WeatherNation

Severe Threat Today, Along With Other Tidbits

We are once again under a Slight Risk of Severe Storms over the area today. The main threat for the area will be large hail and damaging winds, although we are under a 5% chance of tornadoes — and from the Twin Cities eastward they are under a 10% hatched risk. General thinking is that the storms will start popping along the cold front later today (well, duh). My thought is them reaching the STC area 4-7 PM if not later, and after 6 PM for the Twin Cities area. Heavy rain will also be possible, with totals over 1″ in areas. Will continue to monitor the threat and update as needed. Paul Douglas will also be attempting to run a live stream of severe weather coverage later today on the Star Tribune website — I’ll get you that link when I can.

Meanwhile, I was once again on blog duty this morning. Enjoy the Ham Weather Biosphere Blog post — which I invite you to also go read at the link provided too!