St. Cloud Area Weather

Highlighting important St. Cloud MN area weather events.

Category Archives: Winter Storm Warning

Winter Storm Warning Monday — 4-8″ of snow possible

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2010

…ANOTHER SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT

.A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN…FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE WARNING IS LOCATED NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR MONTEVIDEO
AND FARIBAULT IN MINNESOTA…TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. THE WARNING INCLUDES
ALEXANDRIA…WILLMAR…HUTCHINSON…AND ST CLOUD BEGINNING AT 6 AM
MONDAY…THE TWIN CITIES METRO…FARIBAULT AND RED WING AT 9 AM…
AND LITTLE FALLS…CAMBRIDGE…LAKE ELMO…RICE LAKE AND EAU
CLAIRE WISCONSIN BEGINNING AT NOON. FIVE TO NINE INCHES OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…WITH THE HIGHER
TOTALS…7 TO 9 INCHES…OCCURRING GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA…CAMBRIDGE AND RICE LAKE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF
THE WARNING AREA…AND INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF CANBY…REDWOOD
FALLS…MANKATO…FARIMONT…OWATONNA AND ALBERT LEA. THREE TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION…BEGINNING AROUND 6 AM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA…AND SPREAD INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 10 AM MONDAY TO THE WEST…FROM LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST…AND THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MNZ041-042-047>049-055>059-066-200415-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0008.101220T1200Z-101221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0009.101220T1200Z-101221T1200Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
WRIGHT-MCLEOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ALEXANDRIA…LONG PRAIRIE…MORRIS…
GLENWOOD…ST. CLOUD…BENSON…MONTEVIDEO…WILLMAR…
LITCHFIELD…MONTICELLO…HUTCHINSON
212 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING…LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DURING
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY
NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT…SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS…LOW VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW AND DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Staying Cautious (6-12″), but Snowmageddon could be on the way with blizzard conditions…

Eh, I still do not want to completely buy into the NAM forecast, so I am still going a good 6-12″ for STC and the Cities along with most of southern/eastern MN and western WI, with potentially top totals around 16″ wherever the heaviest band sets up.

Map above also shows latest watches and warnings as of 3 PM Friday — Blizzard Warning area expanded to include western and southwestern MN. Winter Storm Warning in effect for the STC and Twin Cities areas, now from Midnight tonight through Midnight Saturday night.  It is looking like the we could see up to a half a foot of snow overnight tonight, and then up to another half a foot Saturday (more in some locations). This will be a crippling storm. DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS COMPLETELY NECESSARY ON SATURDAY! Not only will we have the heavy snow amounts, but this is the light fluffy stuff so it will easily be blown around, and with expected winds from the NW 20-30, gusts even higher, it will cause blizzard or near-blizzard white-out conditions.

This is a graphic from the NCEP HPC Winter Weather Impact page, showing approximately a 20% chance of blizzard criteria being met around noon Saturday. Blizzard criteria would be met if we had winds sustained at 35 or greater for 3 hours, along with significant falling and/or blowing snow, reducing visibility to less than 1/4 of a mile. We could see this during the afternoon hours Saturday.

The storm is still coming together, and more info is being gathered every hour. More later tonight…

Biggest snow storm since Halloween 1991? Not going that far yet…

While it is certainly setting up like it could be one of the biggest storms since Halloween of 1991, there still some things that has me wondering…

This is the NAM run from this morning, still showing 15-18″ possible for the STC area.

Meanwhile, this is the GFS from this morning, showing about 8″.

As you can see, still some confusion. What I can say, though, is that I expect to see over 6″ in the STC, and I’m starting to really think 12″ can not out of the question. It’ll mainly depend on where the axis of heaviest snow sets up, something we won’t know until much later tonight or tomorrow morning. I would not be surprised to see someone come out with 15″ from this system. Again, where is up for question. More updates throughout the day.

Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Friday through 6 AM Sunday — 6-10″ likely

6-10″ is my latest estimate — more as you head toward the Cities. Most snow will fall between tonight and noon Saturday, with white out conditions and bitter cold after that. Update later this afternoon.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
502 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

…MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN…

.A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA…ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A REDWOOD FALLS…TO
WILLMAR…TO SAUK CENTRE…TO ONAMIA LINE. THIS WARNING INCLUDES
THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN
AFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN…INCLUDING LADYSMITH AND EAU
CLAIRE…FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA…GENERALLY WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS TO LITTLE FALLS
LINE.

HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING…AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY…A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT
THE STORM ONSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AREAS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A NEW ULM…TO MANKATO…TO NORTHFIELD LINE COULD SEE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA…WITH THE CORRIDOR OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXTENDING
FROM NEAR HUTCHINSON…ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO…TO THE NEW
RICHMOND AND LADYSMITH COMMUNITIES OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE FOOT ARE POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA…WHERE TOTALS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES WILL BE MORE
COMMON.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS THIS WINTER STORM
GATHERS STRENGTH AND MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH…WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH…WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING…BUT
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW.

MNZ044-045-049-050-057-101915-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0007.101211T0300Z-101212T1200Z/
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-KANDIYOHI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PRINCETON…MORA…ST. CLOUD…FOLEY…
WILLMAR
502 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST SUNDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9
PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING…SIGNIFICANT SNOW BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT…6 TO 11 INCHES OF SNOW…ARE LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* OTHER IMPACTS…HEAVY SNOW ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS MAY RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN COUNTRY. WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 30 BELOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 am Saturday… 3-6″ Possible

Snow is currently moving towards the STC area– grand totals appear likely between 3 and 6 inches for STC, up to 8″ as you head towards the Minnesota River Valley, and less as you head towards the Brainerd area.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1144 AM CST FRI DEC 3 2010

…SNOW…HEAVY AT TIMES…MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA…

.A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS INCLUDES ALEXANDRIA…REDWOOD
FALLS…AND WILLMAR. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALSO
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA…INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN
AREA…MANKATO…AND ALBERT LEA…AS WELL AS FAR WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN…INCLUDING NEW RICHMOND…THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT AREAS
NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES
CAMBRIDGE…LITTLE FALLS…AND EAU CLAIRE.

AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING…WITH REPORTS ALREADY IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS OF 1130 AM.
THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REACH THE
TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON…
AND INTO FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN SOON AFTER. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7
INCHES…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 5 INCHES.

THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE SNOW.

THE WINTER STORM IS THE RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
TODD-STEARNS-SHERBURNE-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-
WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-
RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-PEPIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LONG PRAIRIE…ST. CLOUD…ELK RIVER…
LITCHFIELD…MONTICELLO…MINNEAPOLIS…BLAINE…ST. PAUL…
STILLWATER…HUTCHINSON…GAYLORD…CHASKA…SHAKOPEE…
BURNSVILLE…ST. PETER…LE SUEUR…FARIBAULT…RED WING…
ST. JAMES…MANKATO…WASECA…OWATONNA…FAIRMONT…BLUE EARTH…
ALBERT LEA…HUDSON…NEW RICHMOND…RIVER FALLS…PRESCOTT…
DURAND…PEPIN
1144 AM CST FRI DEC 3 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
SATURDAY…

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY.

* TIMING…LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT…5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS…TRAVEL TIME MAY BE CONSIDERABLY LONGER…
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Winter Wx Advisory Stearns, Benton (3-6″) — Winter Storm Warning Sherburne (6-10″) — From 6 AM Sat-6 AM Sun

Forecast from earlier still on track…

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
340 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

…FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO ALONG
WITH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN…

.A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL…SOUTH
CENTRAL…AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THIS INCLUDES WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AREA. THERE IS ALSO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A ROW OF
COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARNING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLS
WITHIN THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
ADVISORY AREA CAN EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
MOVING NORTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY AS THE LOW HEADS INTO CENTRAL IOWA…EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START OUT AS A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX…BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS AS TO WHERE THE RAIN AND SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP…BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS PUT IT NEAR A BLUE
EARTH…TO MANKATO…TO SAINT PAUL…TO BALSAM LAKE LINE. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL JUST WEST OF WHERE THIS
TRANSITION LINE SETS UP.

ALTHOUGH GROUND AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE
FREEZING…SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE
MORNING ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW THIS SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADWAYS…LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. IF TRAVEL IS PLANNED ON SATURDAY…BE SURE TO CHECK
ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE HEADING OUT AND BE PREPARED TO
USE EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION.

MNZ043-049-050-057-077-084-130545-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0014.101113T1200Z-101114T1200Z/
MORRISON-STEARNS-BENTON-KANDIYOHI-RICE-WASECA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LITTLE FALLS…ST. CLOUD…FOLEY…
WILLMAR…FARIBAULT…WASECA
340 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
CST SUNDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING…SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT…HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS…DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
—-
MNZ044-045-051>053-058>061-065>069-073>076-082-083-091-WIZ014-
130545-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0004.101113T1200Z-101114T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0004.101113T1200Z-101114T1200Z/
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-
HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-REDWOOD-BROWN-
NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-MARTIN-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PRINCETON…MORA…ELK RIVER…
CAMBRIDGE…CENTER CITY…LITCHFIELD…MONTICELLO…MINNEAPOLIS…
BLAINE…OLIVIA…HUTCHINSON…GAYLORD…CHASKA…SHAKOPEE…
REDWOOD FALLS…NEW ULM…ST. PETER…LE SUEUR…ST. JAMES…
MANKATO…FAIRMONT…AMERY…BALSAM LAKE
340 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST
SUNDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING…SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT…HEAVY WET SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS…DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Winter Storm Warning: Sticking with 5-10" (for now)

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY — STICKING WITH 5-10″ POSSIBLE

Feeling a little better today so far, we’ll see how long it lasts…

While the DC area deals with digging out form a history making snowstorm, not to mention one of the snowiest winters on record for the area (for example, Dulles Airport has had 60.0 inches of snow this winter (normal 13.6 inches) and Philadelphia has had 56.5 inches of snow (normal 10.7 inches)), we have only had 25.4″ of snow this year, a chunk of which came in December with our Christmas Blizzard. But finally, another system is taking a look at hitting the upper Midwest… before heading out and dumping rain on top of all the snow in DC.

This storm is going to be long-duration BUT somewhat slow-accumulating storm. Even though the NWS, and many others, have upped their snow totals, I Between Sunday and Tuesday morning we are only going to receive about 5-10″ of snow, with some isolated totals up to 12″ mainly along the 94 corridor, something that could be considered almost skimpy for a two day storm — mainly because even though the storm looks powerful, the storm holds little moisture with it. It’s only due to the slow-movement of this storm that will allow for the high snow totals, otherwise we’d only be looking at a few inches (and probably a Winter Weather Advisory).

Snow totals look this way: 1-3″ during the day Sunday, 2-4″ Sunday Night, 2-4″ Monday, 1-2″ Monday Night, and 1-2″ Tuesday if the storm sticks around long enough. While those numbers don’t add up to my totals here, I do not believe at this time that I can push my final snow totals up from 5-10″ across the area, with some isolated higher amounts.

What can you take for this? If you don’t let it pile up, it won’t be back breaking. Heck, this won’t even be a storm where you need to go out every couple hours to shovel! It will pile up, though, if you don’t regularly shovel it so make sure you keep on top of it! The main things I’m worried about though are a) The Monday Morning White-Knuckle Driving/Crashing that Minnesota is famous for, and b) the blowing/drifting situation that will develop as we go later on Monday and into Tuesday.

Other than those, this is not going to be that big of a deal in my opinion. Even though its going to be long duration, we are not going to remotely see what they saw in the DC/Baltimore area. Just stay on top of shoveling and don’t hold it off until later on Monday or Tuesday and you’ll be fine. Oh, and of course take it slower on those roads until MNDOT can get out and plow them a few days after the storm.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1258 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

…LONG LASTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING…

.A TWO TO TWO AND A HALF DAY SNOWFALL EVENT…WITH SOME
COMMUNITIES EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS…WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THE SNOW…THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE A BROAD SWATH OF SNOWFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 14 INCHES OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD. THESE LARGE SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE MOST CONFIDENT TO OCCUR FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND
LITTLE FALLS SOUTHWARD TO LITCHFIELD AND WILLMAR. LIKELIHOOD IS
INCREASING FOR THESE HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ALSO BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS DEVELOPING…OR OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL. EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY MONDAY… BEFORE
SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND INTO ILLINOIS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT IS THE PRIME REASON OF THE LONG
DURATION SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVIER TOTAL AMOUNTS.

NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY…AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW…WHICH WOULD
CAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS INCLUDES ALEXANDRIA…LITCHFIELD…LITTLE FALLS…WILLMAR…
AND THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR NORTHWEST OF ST CLOUD.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE WATCH…FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA…AS WELL AS ALBERT
LEA…CAMBRIDGE…HUTCHINSON…FAIRMONT…MANKATO…REDWOOD
FALLS…RED WING…AND THE INTERSTATE 35 AND 90 CORRIDORS.

WHILE CONFIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE…UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACTLY HOW THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN UPGRADE TO
WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MORE OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND LIKELY EXPANSION OF WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.

MNZ041>043-047>050-055>058-080300-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100209T1200Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ALEXANDRIA…LONG PRAIRIE…
LITTLE FALLS…MORRIS…GLENWOOD…ST. CLOUD…FOLEY…BENSON…
MONTEVIDEO…WILLMAR…LITCHFIELD
1258 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
TUESDAY…

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING…SNOW WILL INCREASING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT…TWO DAY SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 10 AND 14 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS…GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF FAR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY…RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD… AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Winter Storm: A Long-Duration Storm To Bring 5-10"

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY — 5-10″ POSSIBLE

Sorry, but this is going to be a quick blog on the upcoming storm — I’ve spent most of the day (including now) dealing with a migraine.

While the DC area deals with a history making snowstorm, not to mention one of the snowiest winters on record (for example, Dulles Airport has had 74.6 inches of snow this winter (normal 13.6 inches) and Philadelphia has had 54.5 inches of snow (normal 10.7 inches)), we have only had 25.4″ of snow this year, most of which came in December around Christmas. But it might be our turn again with this storm.

The big note about this storm is that it is going to be a long-duration BUT somewhat slow-accumulating storm. Between Sunday and Tuesday morning we are only going to receive about 5-10″ of snow, with some isolated totals up to 12″ mainly along the 94 corridor, something that could be considered almost skimpy for a long duration storm, mainly because even though the storm looks powerful, the storm holds little moisture with it. It’s only due to the slow-movement of this storm that will allow for the high snow totals.

Snow totals look this way: 1-2″ during the day Sunday, 2-4″ Sunday Night, 2-4″ Monday, 1-2″ Monday Night, and maybe up to an inch early Tuesday if the storm sticks around long enough. This should leave totals of 5-10″ in the area, again with some isolated higher amounts.

What can you take for this? If you don’t let it pile up, it won’t be back breaking. Heck, this won’t even be a storm where you need to go out every couple hours to shovel! It will pile up, though, if you don’t regularly shovel it so make sure you keep on top of it! The main things I’m worried about though are a) The Monday Morning White-Knuckle Driving/Crashing that Minnesota is famous for, and b) the blowing/drifting situation that will develop as we go later on Monday and into Tuesday.

Other than those, this is not going to be that big of a deal in my opinion. Even though its going to be long duration, we are not going to remotely see what they saw in the DC/Baltimore area. Just stay on top of shoveling and don’t hold it off until later on Monday or Tuesday and you’ll be fine. Oh, and of course take it slower on those roads until MNDOT can get out and plow them a few days after the storm.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1028 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2010

…SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIES AHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING…

.A LENGTHY PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION OF SNOW…THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES OVER A TWO DAY
PERIOD. THESE LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES.

THE SNOW WILL BE PRODUCED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY…BEFORE SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND INTO
ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA…AND THESE FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON MONDAY NIGHT…THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW…WHICH WILL CAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS
TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO TO LITCHFIELD
AND ALONG AND WEST OF A LITCHFIELD…TO SAINT CLOUD…TO LITTLE
FALLS LINE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR FROM SAINT
CLOUD TO ALEXANDRIA.

A WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35… AND INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF HUTCHINSON…THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA….AND SAINT PETER.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A NEW ULM…TO MANKATO…TO OWATONNA LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK…WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

MNZ041>043-047>050-055>058-071230-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0003.100207T1800Z-100209T1200Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ALEXANDRIA…LONG PRAIRIE…
LITTLE FALLS…MORRIS…GLENWOOD…ST. CLOUD…FOLEY…BENSON…
MONTEVIDEO…WILLMAR…LITCHFIELD
1028 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO
6 AM CST TUESDAY…

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM
CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING… SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT… SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TEN INCHES OVER
THE TWO DAY PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS… STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY EVENING
AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY…RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD… AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

"Snowpocalypse" to dump 12"+ over the area

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY… 12-16″ STC, 10-14″ MSP…

Watch live streaming video from weathrlver at livestream.com

The storm is getting closer, and it is looking more and more likely that places out towards the St. Cloud area could see a foot or more of snow by the time all is said and done on Saturday.

It must be stressed that the picture basically remains the same from yesterday. Snow, ice, poor travel and windy conditions will affect most of the Upper Midwest starting Wednesday and lasting through Saturday. And, of course, the storm is coming from the south and west, so the storm will start sooner in places such as Iowa and Nebraska and make travel tricky as soon as even later tonight.

The later model runs have a more westward motion, bringing the lows track, of course, west. The models have the initial low dying out sometime during the day on Christmas Eve over western Iowa and reforming south and east before tracking through central Iowa on Christmas and into Saturday before making its way through Wisconsin throughout the day Saturday into Sunday.

It appears snowfall will spread north from Iowa Wednesday morning, and the first waves of snow may be approaching the area late Wednesday afternoon into early evening.

There are many question marks remaining with this storm, not only revolving around the track but the initial surge of warm air Wednesday into Thursday. This surge could make it into the Twin Cities metro area and create a period of sleet or even freezing rain, mainly during the day Thursday, before it changes back to all snow. More ice is expected as you head south and east from the Cities, making travel even more difficult. The only silver lining?: Less snow for the Cities.

It is likely to stay all snow, though, here in the St. Cloud area unless we get the low to track even more west than it is already. Either way, I do expect a heavy snowfall from the west Metro and westward. The heaviest of the snowfall will come Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before the system starts to push out on Saturday.

Snow, but on the lighter side, will linger throughout the rest of the weekend, but travel will likely remain difficult due to snow totals, any ice accumulations that occur, and some blowing and drifting that will occur from Wednesday Night onward.

Now, the snow totals. We look for consistency between models, and that is surprisingly what we are getting! (It’s honestly a miracle that the computer models are staying so consistent with each other on the path and totals!) Even then, though, there remains a few questions about total amounts, not only in the Twin Cities but here in St. Cloud too.

The problem isn’t moisture, though. We will have very humid Gulf air being pumped into the storm — its what all that moisture could cause. We could have strong thunderstorms develop south of us. That moisture will get pushed into the cold sector eventually, but it could shut off moisture early in the storm — it’s very possible, but we should still get some early snow. Another thing I’m concerned about is thundersnow that could ring the atmosphere out of moisutre (and create higher snow totals in places!)

For now, though, I’m going to say 10-14″ for the Twin Cities area (a lot of it will depend on the duration of any ice).

For the St. Cloud area, I am squarely putting us in the 12-18″ range. Yes, I am putting St. Cloud on the edge of some of the heaviest snow possible from the storm. But we will not be in the heaviest. I’m thinking up to 20″ could fall in places like Willmar southward towards Worthington and the Sioux Falls area. Here’s one of the models showing this type of possibility. Expect 1-2′ amounts over a good chunk of southern and western Minnesota.

If you want me to break this down for the St. Cloud area — lets say 1-3″ possible Wednesday Night, 3-6″ Thursday, another 3-6″ Thursday Night, 2-4″ Christmas through Christmas Night, lingering snow (maybe an inch) through the rest of the weekend.

Winds are another factor, as by Thursday winds will pick up from the northerly directions at 20-30 mph, causing blowing and drifting and making travel even worse.

Some kind travel advise: Do not expect to get anywhere fast after the storm starts Wednesday Night until the storm ends Saturday or Sunday. If you must travel — GO SLOW! Roads will deteriorate fast on Thursday and stay that way through Saturday. I know, its Christmas, you want to travel to relatives or whatnot. It might be best to stay home if you can — but again, take it slow if you must.

Some things are still uncertain, but it is looking more and more likely the area will get dumped on by this storm. Make sure you stay ahead of the storm and don’t get caught in it — if you must travel make sure you have your car ready if you get stuck somewhere. Otherwise, get ready to shovel your butts off!

Depending on if I see anything important tonight, the next update for this forecast will likely be Wednesday before the storm starts hitting.