Another Friday/Saturday — another storm. Wouldn’t you believe that this is the 4th in 5 Friday/Saturday combos that have seen a significant snowfall in parts of southern Minnesota? Well, another one is taking shape right now, and will once again come terribly close to the STC area.
This is the latest run by the NAM model, and it has throughout the day shifted the heaviest bands of snow toward the north metro and STC area. As you can see, the 0Z run has the heaviest of snow from STC eastward.
This is the latest run from the GFS, showing the snow more in line with current Winter Storm Watches, but still pushing 8″ into the STC area.
It’ll be interesting to see where the deformation zone sets up — the axis of heaviest snow. It’s been pretty much just to our east or west throughout the winter so far… could it set up right over STC this time? We shall see… 50 miles could be the difference between 4″ and near a foot…
While it is still early out, there is the possibility we could see 6-12″ inches in the STC area, while portions of the Twin Cities along with areas south and east of there could see a foot or more. I am not completely buying into the NAM model just yet — would like to see another run or two of about the same before I did. Since the GFS comes somewhat in line with it and the watches, even though with less snow, makes me more confident that we could at least be on the edge of the heavier snow. Its looking like we could see greater snow amounts than what we have been so far this winter (from one storm) by the end of the day Saturday. If nothing else, I believe that the forecast from Paul Douglas will be true — 1-15″!
Right now this is the moisture output. The NAM model is forecasting over an inch of moisture within the system. If that were to verify, and at an expected 15:1 snow to water ratio, some areas could see close to 15″ of snow (which falls closely in line with where the model has the heaviest snowfall at the moment). I’m not sure that there will be an inch of moisture in this system, but it’s something to watch for.
Watches as of 9 PM Thursday
These is the current watches out for the system. A Winter Storm Watch covers much of southern and eastern MN, including the Twin Cities and Sherburne County, for the possibility of over 6″ of snow. Meanwhile, there is a Flood Warning in the Ft. Ripley area due to an ice jam.
Besides the snow, we will have to watch for blizzard-like conditions. Winds will be out of the northwest 15-25 mph, gusts to 30, creating white-out driving conditions. Saturday will not be a day to travel if possible! This will be snow that is easy to shovel off the driveway, but a pain in the neck to travel on the streets/highways with.
It’ll be interesting to watch the path of this storm over the next few days, especially to see if the STC area can miss out on another winter storm. Let’s see if the deflector shield continues to work!
St. Cloud Area Weather 