Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6 AM

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 6 AM. Already as of 1045 PM there are some storms starting to roll into the area, as is evidenced by the thunder I hear outdoors, however the main activity is still to our west. The main threat will likely be damaging winds as well as heavy rainfall (not helping the situation out on the Sauk River any) — but large hail cannot be ruled out as well as a quick tornado. The following is provided by the SPC:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MANKATO
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 689…WW 690…WW
691…WW 692…

DISCUSSION…A LARGE HP SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY MORPHED INTO A
CYCLONIC GYRE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NERN SD. UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE GYRE MERGES
WITH DECAYING BOW OVER E-CNTRL SD. EXPECT MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG
IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT…FORCED BY STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO NOCTURNAL LLJ. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.

…MEAD

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 1 pm

SPC has extended a Svr Tstorm Watch til 1 pm for the area…

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Stearns, Sherburne, Twin Cities until 9 AM

Still up? Thunder keeping you awake? Well, I have news: The STC area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch now until 9 AM! We are on the extreme northwest portion of this watch, and I feel as though the big storms will stay to the south, but heavy rain is a definite no matter what here in the STC area as we go though the night. I’ll be heading to bed soon (I gotta work at 11), but if we get a warning for the area I’ll get an update posted here to the blog to inform you of whats happening.

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 120 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 605…

DISCUSSION…STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING ATOP
SHALLOW OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS AS LOW-LVL WAA/RICH MOISTURE
INFLOW STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF UPR IMPULSE CONTINUING EWD FROM WY.
PRESENCE OF DEEP EML ON NRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ROTATING STRUCTURES THAT…GIVEN HIGH
PW…COULD YIELD DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

…CORFIDI

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Sherburne until 2 AM

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 55 MILES EAST OF EAU
CLAIRE WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 587…WW 588…WW
589…WW 590…

DISCUSSION…TSTMS HAVE FORMED RECENTLY ALONG WEAK W/E BOUNDARY N OF
THE MSP AREA. OTHER STORMS HAVE AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPED IN AREA
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN SW MN. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY LIKELY IS
BEING ENHANCED BY PASSING UPR LVL IMPULSE /PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/… AND…IN ERN MN…BY SFC HEATING. LOW LVL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK/DISORGANIZED. BUT PRESENCE OF HI PW WITH
MODERATE TO SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP WNWLY SHEAR /PER VWP AND PROFILER
DATA/ MAY SUPPORT ESE-PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG
WIND.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3 AM including Stearns replaces Tornado Watch

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3 AM for southwestern MN that includes the Stearns County. This watch replaces the Tornado Watch that was in effect until 11 PM. After 8 PM, the entire Tornado Watch has been discontinued. Large hail and damaging winds now the main threat through the overnight hours.

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
NORFOLK NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 448. WATCH NUMBER 448 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 800 PM CDT. CONTINUE…WW 446…WW 447…

DISCUSSION…SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD FROM
SW SD AND ENCOUNTERS A REMAINING CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM
ERN NEB INTO SW MN. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT AND MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL…BEFORE THE CONVECTION
MOVES E OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31015.

…THOMPSON

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 am

Severe Thunderstorm Watch just to our south until 6 am

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch had been issued just south of Stearns until 6 am. Will watch overnight just in case. Mainly looking for line of severe tstorms capable of damaging winds to pass through tonight.

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF IOWA
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA TO 10 MILES EAST OF LAMONI IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 382…WW 383…WW
385…WW 386…WW 387…

DISCUSSION…ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN IA AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MID LEVEL ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATER TONIGHT…ONE OR TWO LINEAR MCS/S ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND SURGE RAPIDLY EWD
INTO THE WW AREA AFTER 06Z. WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.

…IMY

Tornado Watch for Big Stone, Traverse Counties now Severe Tstorm Watch — Huge wind maker coming

The Storm Prediction Center has replaced the Tornado Watch in Big Stone and Traverse Counties, along with a lot of South Dakota, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 1 AM. A long line of storms are right now forming and bowing out in central SD, leading to a main threat of damaging winds in excess of 60-70 mph as it moves through, along with some hail. Tornadoes do not appear to be a main threat anymore. We’ll have more if/when this line aims for the Minnesota area.

Marginal Severe Threat, At Best, For Rest Of Night

New guidance, and the fact that storms are having a tough time initiating, are leading to a marginal chance of storms developing and becoming severe over the rest of the time period. The Storm Prediction Center is also watching the area south and east of the current watch for the possibility of having to issue another watch, though they do not anticipate it at the moment.

Watch out for any additional storm formation, as it does have the chance to become severe, but I would not anticipate it. If nothing else, we could use the rain.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM includes Stearns, Benton and Sherburne

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been issued for the St. Cloud area, including Stearns, Benton and Sherburne Counties. The watch goes until 10 PM, and also includes parts of the northern Twin Cities and the Duluth area. Storms are starting to initiate within the watch area, and could go severe shortly. Large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 MPH appear to be the main threats along with typical cloud-to-ground lightning associated with thunderstorms. I’m not too sure on the threat for the St. Cloud area (front might already be too close), but it does increase as you head east of the area.

What follows below is the watch area image and the statement from the Storm Prediction Center. We will have updated watch areas, warnings and statements as they are issued, mainly ones which impact the STC area.