Ugh, it’s been a while since I’ve been able to write a real blog, but I’m making time tonight. For those waiting for a winter outlook, I hope to have that on the way within a few days. I could always take the way that some do and say it will get colder with snow, but I won’t. While I may not make any real snowfall predictions, I will take a look at the pattern and project what an average winter under the circumstances we are under may hold.
But lets focus to the “now”. We’ll start locally, where we have seen 26 days (I believe) without measurable precipitation. That is likely to change within the next few days. While parts of Minnesota may see some rain on Saturday (it looks like the main system will stay far enough south to avoid the area — won’t rule out a shower or two though) a better period of rain should come its way tramping in by Monday along with a downright chilly air mass from the north, bringing a couple more fairly blustery days with it next week (only this time with wind chills!). Temps will plummet to only the lower to middle 40s by the middle of the week.
Things start to get a little interesting then — by Friday the models are showing what would be the rain/snow line south of the area, and with some wrap around moisture from the system moving through we could have our first real dose of winter. Some are saying this could come as early as Wednesday — while that may be true, especially as we hit nightfall, I would put a little better trust in Friday myself (that is, what trust I can put in models more than a few hours out!). If it pans out this way, it is possible that we could see our first “snow” in the form of flurries, while parts of northern MN could see a couple of inches of the white stuff. It should clear out by Halloween though — and even though it will be only in the 40s at the moment, it should be dry. Again, putting trust in models that I shouldn’t… so expect this to change over the next week!
NHC track as of 10 PM Wednesday Night
TD 19 has also formed, and while I haven’t talked tropics a lot, we need a reminder that Tropical Season ain’t over yet. Right now the forecast track from the NHC has it becoming a tropical storm (Richard) over the next few days before taking aim on the Yucatan by the end of the weekend.
Model runs on this storm
I show you these spaghetti model to show that they aren’t all aligned with each other as of yet. The scary one would be the one that aims it toward Tampa by the beginning of next week.
This is a close up of that one model that has aim at Tampa — showing a strong hurricane by Monday evening in this area. I do NOT think this will happen — I have a big hunch that the path toward the Yucatan will be the correct track of the storm — but anything could happen.
St. Cloud Area Weather 