As we saw in the last post, we expect major flooding conditions over portions of the state, with a good likelihood of minor flooding in the STC area. First, why is this?
Not only did we have a wet fall (remember the flooding in southern Minnesota?) but we have had a lot of snow this year. Places to our south and west currently have an estimated 10-20″+ on the ground. As of Friday morning in the STC area we had 13″ on the ground, but a small amount of that likely melted away during the day Friday.
This translates to 4-8″ of moisture sitting in that snow currently that needs to melt into the river system in the spring. A lot of moisture that, added all together, can make a big difference in the levels of the rivers and streams. Just think of 4-8″ of water over a large area melting into the Minnesota River — that’s the situation we are currently looking at.
Now, what might influence whether we see flooding as bad as predicted, worse, or (hopefully) not as bad? Here is a small list of influences:
What Could Hurt the Situation?
- We get a lot more snow, especially some with high moisture contents. Remember the very early storms this year? The wet, heavy snows? If we get a few more of these, storms that swing up in our direction from the panhandle of Texas, we will add a lot of moisture to our already loaded picture, and could make flooding worse.
- Heavy spring rains would do a number on the rivers, especially if it occurred before the ground defrosted (or the snow had a chance to completely melt). This would automatically send boatloads of water into the rivers.
- If we get a late, but quick melting period in the spring, we would also send boatloads of water into the rivers very rapidly. This could also prove bad news for the forecasts.
What Could Help The Situation?
- Well, for starters, lets make the snow STOP COMING EVERY COUPLE DAYS! If we could will the atmosphere into doing that, it would help the situation a little bit. Not eliminate it by any means – it’s almost certain that we will see flooding this spring — but the situation would not be made much worse if the snow would continue to avoid the area like the past few days (then again, we might be stuck in very cold air. Which is better…?)
- A slow warm up that doesn’t melt the snow quickly. If we had a gradual melting, not as much stress would be put upon the rivers at once, as the water would slowly move into the rivers.
Only time can tell what the rest of this winter will hold for us, and how bad the spring flooding really is. It would be good, though, that if you are in an area prone to flooding with the forecasted levels, that you start preparing now for any flooding that may occur. Better to be prepared than lose everything.
