St. Cloud Area Weather

Severe Tstorm Warning for western Stearns til 1 AM… Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM

D.J. Kayser — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 05:18:42 +0000

So, a little bit ago on Twitter I called the severe threat mainly over, and somewhat questioned the severe weather watch box. In other words, I shouldn’t be surprised to see that there is now a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for western Stearns, right? Meanwhile, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the heavy rains — definitely needed.

KANDIYOHI MN-POPE MN-STEARNS MN-SWIFT MN-
1212 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
SWIFT…WESTERN STEARNS…POPE AND NORTHERN KANDIYOHI COUNTIES UNTIL
100 AM CDT…

AT 1209 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF STARBUCK TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEDAN TO SUNBURG
TO KERKHOVEN…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
GLENWOOD…SEDAN…BELGRADE…GEORGEVILLE…NEW LONDON…SPICER…
ELROSA…LAKE HENRY…HAWICK…MEIRE GROVE…MELROSE…SAUK
CENTRE…VILLARD…BROOTEN AND GROVE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR…LARGE HAIL…AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN THE TWIN CITIES.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

…HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT…

.CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT…WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT TIME OVER URBAN AREAS…ESPECIALLY
IN AND AROUND ST CLOUD…AND PARTS OF THE TWIN CITIES COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS…STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND GRANITE FALLS…TO
GLENCOE…TO THE TWIN CITIES. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 8 AM. HOWEVER…IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BE UNDER
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MNZ042>045-049>070-271315-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FF.A.0002.110727T0504Z-110727T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-
CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-
HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-
SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LONG PRAIRIE…LITTLE FALLS…
PRINCETON…MORA…ST. CLOUD…FOLEY…ELK RIVER…CAMBRIDGE…
CENTER CITY…MADISON…BENSON…MONTEVIDEO…WILLMAR…
LITCHFIELD…MONTICELLO…MINNEAPOLIS…BLAINE…ST. PAUL…
STILLWATER…GRANITE FALLS…OLIVIA…HUTCHINSON…GAYLORD…
CHASKA…SHAKOPEE…BURNSVILLE
1204 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA…EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS…IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…BENTON…KANDIYOHI…
MCLEOD…MEEKER…MORRISON…RENVILLE…SHERBURNE…SIBLEY…
STEARNS…TODD AND WRIGHT. IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…ANOKA…
CARVER…CHISAGO…DAKOTA…HENNEPIN…ISANTI…KANABEC…
MILLE LACS…RAMSEY…SCOTT AND WASHINGTON. IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA…CHIPPEWA…LAC QUI PARLE…SWIFT AND YELLOW
MEDICINE.

* UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY

* VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EXCEED 3
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

* FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS…INCLUDING
HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES…AS WELL AS ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS…IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6 AM

D.J. Kayser — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 03:46:45 +0000

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 6 AM. Already as of 1045 PM there are some storms starting to roll into the area, as is evidenced by the thunder I hear outdoors, however the main activity is still to our west. The main threat will likely be damaging winds as well as heavy rainfall (not helping the situation out on the Sauk River any) — but large hail cannot be ruled out as well as a quick tornado. The following is provided by the SPC:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MANKATO
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 689…WW 690…WW
691…WW 692…

DISCUSSION…A LARGE HP SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY MORPHED INTO A
CYCLONIC GYRE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NERN SD. UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE GYRE MERGES
WITH DECAYING BOW OVER E-CNTRL SD. EXPECT MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG
IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT…FORCED BY STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO NOCTURNAL LLJ. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.

…MEAD

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for western Stearns (hail 1″, wind 60 mph) until 615 this morning

D.J. Kayser — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 10:36:13 +0000

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
521 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
WESTERN MORRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
POPE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
WESTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
TODD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

* UNTIL 615 AM CDT

* AT 519 AM CDT…RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
EAGLE BEND TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLONTARF…AND MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…
ALEXANDRIA…
GLENWOOD…
STAPLES…
LONG PRAIRIE…
LONG BEACH…
ROSE CITY…
FORADA…
STARBUCK…
CARLOS…
LOWRY…
MILTONA…
HEWITT…
BERTHA…
EAGLE BEND…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM…PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT…LON 4631 9454 4634 9442 4629 9434 4621 9439
4616 9436 4616 9429 4538 9474 4541 9476
4541 9574 4550 9575 4612 9535 4611 9515
4631 9517 4637 9515 4638 9473
TIME…MOT…LOC 1021Z 272DEG 27KT 4614 9510 4547 9554
WIND…HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

Severe Tstorm Warning for SE Stearns until 615 (wind 75mph, hail 1.25″)

D.J. Kayser — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 22:20:42 +0000

This is in association with the bow to the south… going to have to watch this closely…

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
513 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHERN KANDIYOHI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
EASTERN RENVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
WESTERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 509 PM CDT…TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM SVEA TO THORPE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIRFAX…AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…
WILLMAR…
LITCHFIELD…
HUTCHINSON…
THORPE…
LAKE LILLIAN…
SVEA…
PRIAM…
FAIRFAX…
BLOMKEST…
FRANKLIN…
HECTOR…
COSMOS…
KANDIYOHI…
BUFFALO LAKE…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM…PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS…WHICH CAN UPROOT
TREES…DOWN POWER LINES…AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND WINDOWS.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES AS THEY MAY BE OVERTURNED. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED…WHICH CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND WINDOWS. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

&&

LAT…LON 4505 9525 4543 9442 4530 9407 4479 9405
4463 9443 4449 9483 4452 9489 4486 9489
TIME…MOT…LOC 2213Z 233DEG 42KT 4508 9500 4493 9474
4463 9475
WIND…HAIL 75MPH 1.25IN

Severe Tstorm Warning for Stearns, Benton until 6 PM (wind 60 mph, hail 1.25″)

D.J. Kayser — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 22:07:53 +0000

Heaviest stuff far to the south… could make its way here later. Warning for a storm that popped up west of the area. Main hail/wind will likely move towards Avon instead of STC.

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
459 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
SOUTH CENTRAL MORRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
EASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 455 PM CDT…RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM…CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSCOE…OR ABOUT 22 MILES WEST OF
ST CLOUD…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…
ST CLOUD…
ROSCOE…
RICHMOND…
COLD SPRING…
FARMING…
ALBANY…
PLEASANT LAKE…
AVON…
COLLEGEVILLE…
ST JOSEPH…
WAITE PARK…
HOLDINGFORD…
SAUK RAPIDS…
SARTELL…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM…PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT…LON 4595 9424 4569 9387 4538 9454 4549 9474
TIME…MOT…LOC 2158Z 221DEG 29KT 4550 9460
WIND…HAIL 65MPH 1.25IN

Tornado Watch until 2 AM for Stearns

D.J. Kayser — Sat, 18 Jun 2011 00:31:11 +0000

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA TO REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 492…WW 493…WW
494…WW 495…

DISCUSSION…TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVE INVOF WEAK
WNW-ESE WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR/A LITTLE N OF THE MN RVR. OTHER
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WRN PART OF WW AS FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES
ENEWD. MODERATE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR…INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF ND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE…AND MOIST LOW TO MID
LVL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW LVL ROTATION TO YIELD TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG
WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.

Tornado Warning for Kandiyohi until 7:45 PM

D.J. Kayser — Sat, 18 Jun 2011 00:09:24 +0000

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN KANDIYOHI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 656 PM CDT…RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 4 MILES WEST OF
KANDIYOHI…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…
KANDIYOHI…
SPICER…
NEW LONDON…
HAWICK…
REGAL…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR…IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND…OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

Tornado Watch extended until 2 AM… includes Stearns, Benton, and northern/western MN

D.J. Kayser — Tue, 31 May 2011 02:05:37 +0000

Most of northern/western MN, including the STC area, is now under a Tornado Watch until 2 AM. It has been extended due to the line coming in from the west. Some of the cells are still discreet enough to hold rotation, however most of the concern will be little spinups on the leading edge of the line, at times they maybe rain wrapped. I’ll try to keep you updated, mainly on Twitter where you can find me @weathrlver. Keep reading for more information on the watch and the moderate threat.

Below is the tornado watch in effect until 2 AM.

Below is a graphic of current warnings (updates every few minutes) from the SPC. You can view more on these warnings from the Chanhassen, Aberdeen, Sioux Falls, and Grand Forks offices by clicking on the links.

Below is the text of the 2 AM watch box. Some technical jargon, main things to take from it are that tornadoes are possible, along with hail up to 2.5″ and winds to 80 mph. Storms will move on average east to northeast at 40 knots (approximately 45 mph). You can also see the percentages of the threats that the SPC thinks will happen in the watch boxed area.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (30%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (70%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWESTERN IOWA
WESTERN…CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF THIEF RIVER
FALLS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 402…TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 403. WATCH NUMBER 402 403
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 845 PM CDT. CONTINUE…WW 405…

DISCUSSION…THREAT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST EITHER WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS…BOW-ECHO MESOCIRCULATIONS OR LEADING-EDGE/QLCS SPINUPS.
WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD OVER MORE OF NRN MN WITH TIME…AHEAD OF
MCS…LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF NEAR-SFC AIR MASS.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

Tornado Watch until 11 PM… includes Stearns, Benton, and western MN

D.J. Kayser — Mon, 30 May 2011 21:39:45 +0000

Most of western MN, including the STC area, is now under a Tornado Watch until 11 PM. This is where the Moderate Risk of Severe Storms is this evening. We are going to watch storms form within the next few hours out in the eastern Dakotas, western Minnesota and move northeast and eastward throughout the evening. Especially towards the beginning of the storms, when they are discreet cells, we could see large hail and some tornadoes. The SPC is not overly confident in tornadoes it looks like, only giving this watch box a 40% chance we could see at least two tornado touchdowns. These cells will likely merge into a line throughout the evening and continue their eastward path, and I think we have a better chance in the STC area of getting in on the line rather than discreet cells. At that time, the main threat will gradually turn to damaging winds with large hail, however we cannot rule out some quick tornadic spinups along the leading edge of the line. Stay alert as we go through the evening hours, and we’ll try to keep you updated, mainly on Twitter where you can find me @weathrlver. Keep reading for more information on the watch and the moderate threat.

Below is the tornado watch in effect until 11 PM for our area. The extreme southwest corner of Minnesota is also under a tornado watch until 9 PM tonight.

This is the categorical outlook from the SPC, as you can see the Moderate threat of severe storms stretches into the STC area. The main concerns in the STC area are isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. Image via.

Below is the HRRR (Rapid Refresh) model depiction of storms — first sparking as some discreet cells (maybe some tornadoes?) between about 7-8 PM, then moving into Stearns County around 10-11 PM as a vigorous line capable of damaging winds. This is off the 19z (3 PM) run. You can view more of that run by clicking here and viewing the Composite Reflectivity images. For reference, 00z is 7 PM.

Below is the text of the 11 PM watch box. Some technical jargon, main things to take from it are that tornadoes are possible, along with hail up to 2.5″ and winds to 75 mph. Storms will move on average east to northeast at 40 knots (approximately 45 mph). You can also see the percentages of the threats that the SPC thinks will happen in the watch boxed area.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BEMIDJI
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 402…

DISCUSSION…SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT…ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS…WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
SEVERE TSTMS. INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED…WITH A QUASI-LINEAR EVOLUTION
LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

…GUYER/HART

Tornado Watch for Sherburne County, Twin Cities until 8 PM

D.J. Kayser — Sun, 22 May 2011 17:50:47 +0000

We are tracking a TORNADO WATCH recently issued for Sherburne County south and east — THIS DOES INCLUDE THE TWIN CITIES. I’ll keep you updated the best I can this afternoon…

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (40%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MANKATO MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES EAST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 321…

DISCUSSION…SRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS SERN MN/WRN
WI MAY BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
THE RAPID NWD FLUX OF 60+ F DEWPOINTS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WARM AND COLD
FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM E-CNTRL SD TOWARD
CNTRL MN. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW COUPLED
WITH THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.

…MEAD

Updating Radar of the Tornado Watch Area

Updating Warnings

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Mod (30%)

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	High (70%)

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (20%)

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Mod (40%)